Evaluating Probabilities Using Technical Analysis

Besides technical analysis, I also use simplified statistical analysis made on the basis of long observation of the market behavior and study of its common laws. Many laws can be quite well explained from the common sense point of view, as well.

Such preliminary probability evaluation allows me to avoid the most common mistakes at opening and liquidating of my positions. The criteria follow.

• Usually, the probability that the market will continue its current movement in the present direction is higher than the probability that the market will soon change direction to the opposite.

Because the market has a high degree of momentum, the logical con clusion would be that opening a position in a current prevailing direction already gives a trader some statistical advantage of making a profit, rather than having a loss in such a case. However, even though it directly follows from one of the basic postulates of the technical analysis (the market moves in trends), many traders prefer to search for the opportu nity to catch the moment of the market transition from one direction to another, instead of going with the trend. My own observation shows that many novices intuitively feel this law and open the majority of their positions (in the very beginning of their trading careers) in a direction of a current market move. In fact, the less theoretical knowledge and practical experience a beginner has, the more expressed such a tendency is. Although they don't yet feel capable of predicting future changes in the market behavior and don't try to do so, they base their trading on what they see on the screen.


Because the FOREX market has a very high volatility, often such a tactic is justified and brings novice traders success during the initial period of their trading careers. This is why the overwhelming majority of the novices succeed while practicing dummy trading or even trading with real capital in the beginning. Unfortunately, this ability to go with the market soon disappears. Then it becomes substituted with analysis, mostly in accordance with knowledge received from books. Instead of simply following market fluctuations, traders begin to predict its future behavior and try to act in advance. From that point on, the majority of new positions are based on analysis and forecasts, and very often against the current market movement. From the moment strategy is shifted to mostly picking tops and bottoms, the chances to survive in business are sharply lowered.

From my point of view, the formula "sell on weakness, buy on strength" has an obvious advantage over another popular formula "buy low, sell high." The latter better fits a longer-term trader or investor rather than a short-term speculative trader, whose basic purpose is to enter and exit the market fast enough to get a relatively modest profit and then to secure it. In real trading conditions and especially in a day trade, it is much more difficult to define a point or even an approximate zone of a market turn, than to receive fast profit, catching the market on the run and opening a position in a direction of its current movement. Therefore, any trade tactics providing a position opening in a direction of movement (that already has begun) can be considered preferable in comparison with tactics focused on picking extreme market levels (tops or bottoms) to open a position against the prevailing direction at the moment.

• If the market had committed a significant move in some direction during the day, there would be a high probability of some extension in the same direction during the next day. The same assumption can also be used for analysis of weekly and monthly charts. See Figures 8.5 and 8.6.

The trend is one of the main market's features and occurs frequently. There is nothing unusual in this fact, and the FOREX market is famous for.



FIGURE 8.5 This is a very impressive sample of my statement: A strong and volatile move in one direction, with the closing price of the day almost at the very bottom of its range, continued during the next day. Despite the fact that the volatility of the third day was big, the closing price was closer to the top of the day than to the bottom, and therefore, no further extension is seen.

Making Money With Forex Trading

The foreign exchange market is quickly becoming one of the most popular ways for investors to make some extra money. Also known as the Forex or FX market, it is basically the place where different kinds of currency is traded. Since different currencies hold different values, investors who trade wisely can stand to make rather substantial profits.
In Forex trading, one person trades a quantity of one currency for certain quantities of another. The Forex market is especially attractive to people because it is an ongoing, continuous phenomenon; trading can occur at absolutely any time - 24 hours a day, five days per week. While it helps to have a firm grasp on the essential makeup of the foreign exchange market when trading in it, traders by no means have to be total experts. With a little bit of research and practice, just about anyone can be successful trading in this market.
Everything about the Forex market basically revolves around the Forex rate between two currencies. By studying the Forex rate and keeping a close eye on it, people can take advantage of a falling or rising rate between two currencies. People who participate in this market can choose to invest their money however they want; some choose to focus only on the dynamic between a couple pairs of currencies, while others spread their shares around among many different currencies.
Unlike a traditional market like the stock exchange, there is not a physical, tangible market in the true sense of the word when it comes to Forex. Investors cannot meet at one centralized location to perform their transactions like they would at the New York Stock Exchange. All trading and transactions take place over electronic trading networks and the telephone.

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Get The Skinny on the Forex.

If you are considering trading Forex, you should know that it’s one of the hottest segments in the trading universe currently. And for good reason because literally, trillions of dollars are flowing through the Foreign Exchange markets right now. But truth be told, most traders jumping onto the Forex bandwagon are LOSING their money–every single day. It's very well documented, the fact that 95% of Forex traders lose money. What isn’t much talked about though is actually WHY they lose money trading Currencies and what they can do about it.

Make Money With Forex Trading

In the FX market, you buy or sell currencies. Placing a trade in the foreign exchange market is simple: the mechanics of a trade are very similar to those found in other markets (like the stock market), so if you have any experience in trading, you should be able to pick it up pretty quickly.
The object of Forex trading is to exchange one currency for another in the expectation that the price will change, so that the currency you bought will increase in value compared to the one you sold.
An exchange rate is simply the ratio of one currency valued against another currency. For example, the USD/CHF exchange rate indicates how many U.S. dollars can purchase one Swiss franc, or how many Swiss francs you need to buy one U.S. dollar.
How to Read an FX Quote
Currencies are always quoted in pairs, such as GBP/USD or USD/JPY. The reason they are quoted in pairs is because in every foreign exchange transaction you are simultaneously buying one currency and selling another. Here is an example of a foreign exchange rate for the British pound versus the U.S. dollar:
GBP/USD = 1.7500
The first listed currency to the left of the slash (”/”) is known as the base currency (in this example, the British pound), while the second one on the right is called the counter or quote currency (in this example, the U.S. dollar).
When buying, the exchange rate tells you how much you have to pay in units of the quote currency to buy one unit of the base currency. In the example above, you have to pay 1.7500 U.S. dollar to buy 1 British pound.
When selling, the exchange rate tells you how many units of the quote currency you get for selling one unit of the base currency. In the example above, you will receive 1.7500 U.S. dollars when you sell 1 British pound.
The base currency is the “basis” for the buy or the sell. If you buy EUR/USD this simply means that you are buying the base currency and simultaneously selling the quote currency.
You would buy the pair if you believe the base currency will appreciate (go up) relative to the quote currency. You would sell the pair if you think the base currency will depreciate (go down) relative to the quote currency.
Long/Short
First, you should determine whether you want to buy or sell.
If you want to buy (which actually means buy the base currency and sell the quote currency), you want the base currency to rise in value and then you would sell it back at a higher price. In trader’s talk, this is called “going long” or taking a “long position”. Just remember: long = buy.
If you want to sell (which actually means sell the base currency and buy the quote currency), you want the base currency to fall in value and then you would buy it back at a lower price. This is called “going short” or taking a “short position”. Short = sell.
Bid/Ask Spread
All Forex quotes include a two-way price, the bid and ask. The bid is always lower than the ask price.
The bid is the price in which the dealer is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the bid is the price at which you (as the trader) will sell.
The ask is the price at which the dealer will sell the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the ask is the price at which you will buy.
The difference between the bid and the ask price is popularly known as the spread.
Let’s take a look at an example of a price quote taken from a trading platform:
On this GBP/USD quote, the bid price is 1.7445 and the ask price is 1.7449. Look at how this broker makes it so easy for you to trade away your money.